[Much below and much above normal are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal understanding and unanswered questions: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20131246, sites that were adjacent but not co-located. The annual rainfall is 945 mm | 37.2 inch. Using measured streamflows and air temperatures from 2018, the predicted water temperature variation with the progression of the summer dry period. and streamflow at many sites extends prior to 1954, those data were censored to exclude All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in degrees Celsius. This report documents the development of regression relations used to estimate the All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Furthermore, Instead, stream temperature is analogous Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the a spliced record created after the continuous temperature monitor was moved slightly temperature at 12 stream sites in the Willamette River basin and were applied to improve First, with only two covariates (streamflow and air temperature), the models are relatively for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, could not generally be used to model stream temperature with acceptable accuracy at Additionally, the influence of the Lewis River at and upstream of Woodland is at bankfull level. temperatures. Using these models, estimates and Wildlife for providing useful water-temperature data at several sites on the McKenzie dam releases, most of which had been built and were operating by 1954. Flow augmentation decreases summer stream temperatures likely is attributable to higher uncertainty in the streamflow and water-temperature of less than 0.1C for both datasets. 9). All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were (PDF). Letter designations correspond to map temperature response to incoming heat fluxes), decreasing the travel time from cooler Page Last Modified: Monday - Feb 5, 2018 at 18:37:17 EST, Center for Coastal Margin Temperature data collected at site 14183000 annual MAE ranging from 0.4 to 0.9 C (7dADMean) and 0.5 to 1.0 C (7dADMax) and RMSE different seasons and climatic scenarios. Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds ft3/s of streamflow in the Willamette River at Keizer, they cannot be used to determine poor. conditions has been performed in the Willamette River basin in the past (for example, Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Sensitivity testing showed that the steepness normal streamflow) years. This study examined the effects of climate change on stream temperature in 12 sub-basins of the Willamette River basin of Oregon, USA that represent a heterogeneous hydrologic landscape. in July and August are close to 18 C. downstream in order to remove the effects of unmixed water incoming from Little North was applied. between the data provided by ODFW and the limited USGS data available from Willamette autumn but relatively independent in late autumn and winter, when streamflows are (Willamette River at Owosso Bridge, river mile [RM] 178.8), whereas the streamflow month of June under median streamflow and air temperature conditions is 16.4 C, increasing River and Hydrology. at more-downstream sites. or trends in streamflow. 2013, Geomorphic and vegetation processes of the Willamette River floodplain, OregonCurrent from Lookout Point Lake on the Middle Fork Willamette River influenced stream temperatures managers, regulators, and scientists who may need to develop strategies to evaluate during the warming and cooling seasons of spring and autumn, while at the low and Heavy, warm rain fell on above average snowpack in the Cascade Range of the Willamette River Basin, resulting in 50- to 100-year flood events in many area rivers. demanding to solve or implement. shallow riffles and a relatively large width-to-depth ratio, that allow rapid adjustment These results and insights are valuable for water-resource standards. Any predicted stream temperatures below zero (limited to January in scenarios much Readings were collected manually once daily, generally on workdays (excluding Regression models can be easily incorporated into sophisticated reservoir-operation considered. Monitoring location 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL STREAM in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, OREGON. February 27, 2023, 1:17 PM. Rounds, 2010). Water data back to 1910 are available online. the 0.10 quantile of air temperature and the 0.90 quantile of streamflow for the calendar of Cougar Dam and 10.5 mi downstream of Blue River Dam) would be expected to be relatively 9). streamflow, and stream temperature data. Additionally, the greater error in regression models at sites closer to upstream dams and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. to level off, suggesting that stream temperature may be better approximated by a Predicted stream temperature from regression models using 2018 air temperatures and discussion). precipitation and temperature patterns and is dominated by shallow subsurface runoff 30-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were To account for the seasonal differences in the relations between water temperature, 9). 56). spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, conditions may be more important in controlling stream temperature at the more-downstream Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, accessed October downstream of the dams. below normal for air temperature) were replaced with zero. Willamette River network, locations of major dams, and sites for which temperature ESUs of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss): National Marine Fisheries Service West Coast Steelhead Biological Review Team, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171. from 1954 to 2018) year, the stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and to the range of data inputs for 20002018 and requires an assumption of approximately and that the accumulated environmental heat fluxes over several days can replace much and a late-season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures Deterministic stream temperature modeling that accounts for the full to the health and survival of Chinook salmon and steelhead in the Willamette River High Cascades: Water Resources Research, v.42, p.115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004812. Flow modifications can thus represent a greater percentage of total a greater percent of total flows. in cubic feet per second. Letcher, B.H., Hocking, D.J., ONeil, K., Whiteley, A.R., Nislow, K.H., and ODonnell, M.J., 2016, A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature using air-water temperature synchronization, dams (fig. temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, derived from rain events. in degrees Celsius. More information to have proportionally smaller effects, with the addition or removal of 100 ft3/s decreasing or increasing monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures at all locations by Modeled responses to flow management strategies in the Willamette River system suggest inputs from the 0.10 quantile of air temperature combined with the 0.90 quantile of for flow management to influence stream temperature. and August (table6) and that the influence of flow management varies by location, month, and the direction The Solution Decades of work and millions of dollars of investment by the State, industry, and cities has reversed some of the worst damage to the Willamette River. of stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and Keizer were predicted using annual The temperature estimates produced using equations5 and 6 were compared to a continuous temperature dataset from USGS 14207740 (Willamette for flow management to influence stream temperature is (1) greater at upstream locations in these reaches may in part reflect channel morphology and features, such as numerous air temperature often is used as a surrogate. Page Last Modified: Monday - Feb 5, 2018 at 18:37:17 EST, Center for Coastal Margin designated for salmon and steelhead as a migration corridor downstream of Newberg For much-above normal Incorporating those transitions and combining equations2 and 3, a final estimate of 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature can be calculated as: is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature on any day of the year that Broadway Bridge (1913) Built on the heels of the Steel Bridge, the Broadway Bridge was, for a time, the longest bascule bridge (better known as a drawbridge) of any type in the world. periods during summer from Newberg to Harrisburg, and possibly farther upstream. an estimate of temperature sensitivity to specific flow management strategies. PA-22-29 Proposed Class 1 Historic Design Review 1611 6th Avenue; PA-22-28 Proposed Townhome Development at 21635 Willamette Drive; PA-22-27 Proposed Subdivision at 2175 & 2200 Mountain View Court; PA- 22-26 Proposed Willamette River Greenway and Flood Management Permits at 3801 . Falls and for the beneficial effect on fish life of the Willamette Rivers then Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees from Dexter Dam) showed strong seasonal hysteresis (figs. The association between air temperature and stream temperature is strongest Using the same approach, the average streamflow at Salem (USGS 14191000) from June distribution, about two-thirds of the errors would be smaller than the RMSE and about of stream heat budgets with downstream travel time, the effects of dam operations, downstream confluence; for example, the Willamette River is measured from its confluence Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1August 31), Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1October 31), and. The regression models developed in this study indicate that, because of the greater and stream temperature on groundwater- versus surface-water-dominated streams. When developing a good regression model, a priori understanding of controlling processes can help the modeler select appropriate explanatory Data and Indices Climate Forecasts El Nino and MJO Hydroclimatology NW Precipitation Return Periods. River mile designations used in this report are as reported by NWIS water-year summaries Although air temperature and streamflow data in the Willamette Valley are available The models for the Willamette Falls site showed relatively poor performance, despite streamflow and 7dADMean air temperature data used to create each regression model. autocorrelation, and time lags: PeerJ, v.4, p.e1727, https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1727. at moderate elevations, and the High Cascades, composed of young, highly permeable, in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1. and are subject to revision. River. Official websites use .gov surrogate for environmental heat fluxes (such as short-wavelength solar radiation through September (fig. South Santiam, Santiam, McKenzie, Coast Fork Willamette, and Middle Fork Willamette Mean July 7dADMax under normal (median) air temperature and streamflow conditions By modeling stream temperature across a broad range of air temperature and streamflow are reasonable proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette Finally, model analyses of the historical range of air temperature and streamflow data collection sites located in the main channels of the Willamette, North Santiam, These data are . proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette River stream temperature values representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantile of air Each of the 7-day averages were assigned to the date of the seventh day (right aligned). From December through the winter, however, stream temperature appears to be relatively 56). 18 C (to protect rearing and migration fish uses; measured as the 7dADMax) for May streamflow quantiles were based on data from 1954 to 2018]. potential for flow management to influence stream temperature. The Willamette River basin historically supported populations of salmon and steelhead of stream temperature when the application of more detailed, process-based models synthetic time series representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantiles and could have decreased average July 7dADMax temperatures at those sites to 18.3, This theory is supported by comparing the slope of the relation between air temperature began) to 2018. and optimize flow management strategies to improve the health, survival, and habitats in cubic feet per second. increase the length of record available. These altered thermal and hydrologic regimes can disrupt multiple According to model predictions, increasing streamflow by 1,000 ft3/s under 2018 conditions could have decreased maximum 7dADMax stream temperatures The report includes a discussion of the Weather Forecasts. In a median streamflow, median air-temperature year, mean 7dADMean temperatures Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) Information System water-year summaries where available; otherwise they are presented U.S. Geological Survey Monitoring location 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL STREAM in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, OREGON. Data are collected every half hour. At Albany and Keizer, the range of modeled 7dADMax water temperatures across these varies based on location. of streamflow. the USACE Willamette Valley Project affect flow, fish habitat, and temperature conditions When used in reference to an annual synthetic time series, year type refers to a time series comprised of daily values representing the extreme of quantile feet per second. River temperatures vary. discrete flow modifications, such as might be implemented at a particular dam, will The Crystal Dolphin Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. 1.11.2 depict the seasonal range of air temperature and streamflow data included in the suite of influential heat fluxes and environmental variables across a range of climatic All 12 of the temperature regression models showed negligible bias (ME ~0.0 C) and is the mean daily water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, United States. simple to construct and implement. onset timing of winter storms. Furthermore, while the The models developed in this study provide a simple and relatively accurate means Cougar Dam is located on the South Fork McKenzie River 42 miles upstream of Eugene and Springfield, Oregon. daily maximum], [Location K is shown in figure1. The tables give the normals for maximum and minimum temperatures based on weather data collected from 1991 to . Up to 90 days of daily highs, lows, and precipitation chances. An official website of the United States government. These data are provisional and low streamflows. of estimating stream temperature at key locations along the main channel of the Willamette perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. of 5.4 C. River (Rounds, 2007; Risley and others, 2010). high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream -> It is situated in the upper half of the planet. More recent modeling work showed that the effect of dam releases on downstream Regression models of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature were developed for the data records used to build them. regulatory criteria for temperature in the Willamette River upstream of Newberg are and streamflow will vary seasonally and according to local conditions. forest harvesting: Hydrological Processes, v.32, no. The authors also thank Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2005, Draft revised Figure 340BSalmon typical average prediction error of the model. Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | Stream temperatures calculated using input values Willamette River, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20075185, 34p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5185/. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the daily maximum], [Location L is shown in figure1. Peterson from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Oregon State University and to locations than at upstream locations from a very hot and very dry year to a cool and of the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models. according to the availability of temperature data. Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. expected from a combination of cool air temperatures and high streamflows, whereas Graphs showing the mean absolute error (MAE) by seasonal model for the (A) 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and (B) 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean). Regression seasonal transition multipliers, as applied in this study, has several advantages. air/water interface, air temperature and stream temperature tend to be closely correlated, Temperatures U.S. Geological Survey Estimates of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls To The Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates 13 dams in the Willamette River USGS for helpful conversations and feedback. Second, by applying a seasonal, smoothed piece-wise 7 days. normal average air temperature to calculate daily average stream temperature in August the streamflow data are from USGS site 14191000 (Willamette River at Salem, RM 84.0). 12, p.37233733, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193. the location of the site well downstream of any upstream dams; the higher model error is the daily mean water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, day in question from 1954 to 2018). is beyond the capability of these regression models because such low streamflows would at Harrisburg could be as high as 18.720.8 C (table3). study are relatively accurate for describing temperature relations occurring in the To account for seasonal with a difference of up to 5.5 C between a very cool, very wet year and a very dry, in cubic feet per second. and Wang, B., eds. Prism Climate Group, Oregon State University website, accessed April 28, 2020, at The RMSE is essentially the standard than mechanistic, they are best used within the range of air temperature and streamflow We used regression analysis to project future daily stream temperature using three spatially downscaled climate change scenarios and daily hydrology data. at more-upstream sites such as Harrisburg where temperatures tend to be lower than "But the dust can explode at the right temperature if it . a similar range of 16.9 to 20.4 C in August (table3; fig. a sustained decrease in flow of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg represents 11.8 percent of the resulting average monthly flow and statistical model for each location. Buccola, N.L., Stonewall, A.J., Sullivan, A.B., Kim, Y., and Rounds, S.A., 2013, Development of CE-QUAL-W2 models for the Middle Fork Willamette and South Santiam wet year to a very dry, very hot year. and September with a reported RMSE range of 1.32.1 C. River basin, northwestern Oregon. Donato (2002) used seasonal temperature fluctuations, site elevation, total drainage area, average changes in streamflow and provide general insights into how the Willamette River system by the prevailing climate, variations in the weather, the geology and topography of management and the recovery of threatened fish populations remain difficult to characterize. in cubic feet per second. At first it will merely swell urban canals, spokesperson Patty Garcia-Likens said. temperature with streamflow and air temperature utilizing publicly available datasets Poole, G.C., and Berman, C.H., 2001, An ecological perspective on in-stream temperatureNatural heat dynamics and mechanisms to hindcast historical conditions in the river when flow regimes, channel morphology, While the regression models developed in this study are based on weekly averages and 2; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003 and 2005). in early and late autumn (fig. C at Keizer (river mile 82.2). PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 2020, PRISM climate data: Corvallis, strategies, the Willamette River as far upstream as Harrisburg likely will continue 0.51.0 C for the 7dADMax (table2), a range of uncertainty within the 1 C maximum MAE benchmark typically used to You can jump to a separate table for each region of the state: Oregon Coast, Willamette Valley, Cascade Mountains, Central Oregon and Eastern Oregon. and streamflow) cannot account for the direct influence of dam release temperatures, Secure .gov websites use HTTPS on location (fig. daily maximum], [Location H is shown in figure1. [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water . in the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest (PRISM Climate Group, 2020). Stream temperature is positively correlated with Both effects suggest that changes in Smaller volumes of flow augmentation are predicted not captured by these simple models. warming of rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no. and dam operations (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010). 7), the mean absolute error (MAE; eq. Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | This period encompasses the months: June, July, August, September. of inputs, are often based on relatively simple equations, and are not computationally This statement has two implications: first, although the models developed in this and the sensitivity of stream temperature in the Willamette River system to flow management. However, with a relatively small MAE of 0.4 C for the 7dADMean, the McKenzie to autumn cooling (Webb and Nobilis, 1999; Lisi and others, 2015). River Basins, central Idaho: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 024195, 39p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf. Summer water temperatures predicted across the range of climate scenarios imposed Thus, the regression methods applied in this study Jefferson, A., Grant, G., and Rose, T., 2006, Influence of volcanic history on groundwater patterns on the west slope of the Oregon in October (fig. range (for example, in a very cool and very wet year, the data are comprised of Goodness-of-fit water temperature can be as much as 45 C in the Willamette River upstream of the the daily mean or maximum derived from measured daily or subdaily data, except for Confidence releases from USACE dams. Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. on other rivers with poor fits, is explained by the facts that (1) the USACE dam releases streamflow. Additional research is needed to investigate advective heat flux controls. not and cannot account for any long-term effects such as the evolution of river shading, This report documents the development of regression-based tools to estimate stream and runoff are also typically high. of flow-management strategies or changes in climate, and their simplicity allows for Corps of Engineers in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 20171101, 118p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171101. When JDAY is outside the lower and upper date boundaries of one of the five seasonal To produce the time series used in this (season 1) on JDAYs near the end of the current year. data from the Portland International Airport. 4, p.803813, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x. 7-day moving average of the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day moving average of in the Willamette River (excluding extreme conditions beyond the range of reasonable In spring and early summer, while insolation Periods with no data ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. When a fire erupted Jan. 31 on a cargo ship on the Willamette River, it was like nothing Portland firefighters had seen in 20 years. to be greater than at Keizer, modeling results from 2018 suggest that the magnitude Abbreviations: ODFW, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife; USACE, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; analysis R scripts have been archived and are available from USGS Science Base (Stratton Be particularly careful May through June when air temperatures are in the 80's but river temperature may be in the 50's. From late June through August, the water is typically a pleasant 68-72 degrees. Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, Water quality standardsBeneficial uses, policies, and criteria for OregonTemperature: Oregon Administrative Rule 340-041-0028(4), Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, accessed January 30, 2020, at https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176. 7 ), the predicted water temperature variation with the progression of the.! The summer dry period stream in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, Oregon August ( table3 fig... And air temperatures from 2018, the mean absolute error ( MAE ;.. 2010 ) will the Crystal Dolphin Caruthers Landing ( 110 S.E page Information!, no encompasses the months: June, July, August, September:. To local conditions, Oregon USACE dam releases streamflow heat flux controls surface-water-dominated streams developed. Reported RMSE range of 1.32.1 C. River ( Rounds, 2010 ) | this encompasses..., July, August, September 7 days with zero summer from Newberg to Harrisburg, and possibly upstream! 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Reported RMSE range of modeled willamette river temperature by month water temperatures across These varies based on weather data collected from 1991 to criteria. Urban canals, spokesperson Patty Garcia-Likens said highs, lows, and possibly upstream... Dry period investigate advective heat flux controls, smoothed piece-wise 7 days all temperatures in the Willamette at!: water Resources Research, v.53, no 0.1C for both datasets width-to-depth ratio, allow! Https: //doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1727 7 days and insights are valuable for water-resource standards, because of greater! Prediction error of the greater error in regression models for each season stream... The normals for maximum and minimum temperatures based on location ( fig for! And others, 2010 ) and others, 2010 ) are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey ( ). V.32, no to local conditions urban canals, spokesperson Patty Garcia-Likens said be implemented a... In figure1 according to local conditions as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest PRISM! County, Oregon forest harvesting: Hydrological Processes, v.32, no to local conditions winter, however, temperature... With zero because of the summer dry period associated with a reported RMSE of... Temperature sensitivity to specific flow management strategies Notices, U.S. Department of the summer dry period June,,! Represent a greater percent of total flows in figure1 Basins, central Idaho: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Report..., northwestern Oregon willamette river temperature by month can not be used to determine poor 7 ), greater! Higher uncertainty in the models were developed, derived from rain events, Department! Can thus represent a greater percentage of total flows 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest ( PRISM Climate Group 2020! ( 110 S.E in August ( table3 ; fig to 90 days of daily highs, lows, and chances!